Argument分析

之前謝老師所寄送的Argument homework,缺了004~008,趁著考前,當作練習,將其中幾篇照著作業格式分析了一下,希望能有所幫助,同時也算是製作Argument模版前的一個小功課。


編號:004
英文題目:
Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.
中文題目:
牛奶及乳製品富含維生素D及鈣質等對骨骼建立與維護不可或缺的物質。許多人因此相信富含乳製品的食物能幫助預防骨質疏鬆症,一種骨骼隨年紀增長而明顯弱化的疾病，其成因與環境及基因息息相關。然而一個對大量民眾的長期研究發現，那些持續攝取乳製品的人在多年的研究之後比起其他參與者有更高的骨折比例。既然骨折是骨質疏鬆症的症狀之一，此一研究結果顯示富含乳製品的食品事實上可能增加，而非減少罹患骨質疏鬆症的風險。
邏輯關係:
Fact 1: Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis.
Cause 1: age
Cause 2: environmental factors
Cause 3: genetic factors
Effect 1: osteoporosis
Fact 2: those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study
Fact 3: have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study.
Fact 4: bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis.
Effect 2: a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

.................Cause 1 ↘
.................Cause 2 ➝ Effect 1
.................Cause 3 ↗.........↘
Fact 1 ➝ Fact 2 ➝ Fact 3 ➝ Effect 2
.................................Fact 4 ↗


邏輯謬誤:
Fact 4 ➝ Effect 2: 倒因為果,骨質疏鬆症會導致骨折,而不是骨折導致骨質疏鬆症。
Fact 2 ➝ Fact 3: 另有他因,造成骨折的原因可能有很多,重大意外,運動,工作等等。
Fact 3 ➝ Effect 2: 另有他因,即使是骨質疏鬆,也不一定是乳製品的影響,依據Cause 1, Cause 2, Cause 3, 也可能是遺傳,或年齡所造成的,特別是研究中並未提到骨折者的年齡問題及家族病史。

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編號:005
The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.

"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."

中文題目：
以下文章被發表在一個有關於Mentia居民頭痛問題的研究的總結中。
"水楊酸鹽類與用來治療頭痛的阿斯匹靈為同一化學家族的成員。儘管許多食物原本就富含水楊酸鹽類，在過去數十年來，食品加工業者仍然在食物中填加水楊酸鹽做為防腐劑。水楊酸鹽類在商業使用上的增加，已經被發現與我們過去二十年間實驗參與者頭痛報告的數量穩定減少有所關聯。最近，食品加工業者發現水楊酸鹽類也能用以增添食物風味。伴隨著水楊酸鹽的新用途，我們可預期Mentia市民遭受頭痛

的數目將持續穩定的減少。"

邏輯關係：
Fact 1: Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin.
Fact 2: Aspirin is used to treat headaches.
Cause 1: The rise in the commercial use of salicylates.
Effect 1: A steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study.
Fact 3: food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods.
Effect 2: we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia.

Fact 1 ↘
Cause 1 ➝ Effect 1 ➝ Effect 2
Fact 2 ↗.......Fact 3 ↗

邏輯謬誤：
1. Fact 1, Cause 1, Fact 2 ➝ Effect 1 : 另有他因.
a. 同一族系不代表功用相同(Fact 1, Fact 2).
b. 報告的減少不一定表示頭痛人數的減少：
i. 實驗者的減少也有可能導致報告數目的減少: 死亡,外移, 退出實驗.
ii. 基於i, 也有可能報告數目減少, 但比例增加.
c. 無法證明實驗者與加工食品中的水楊酸有必然關聯：
i. 可能Mentia的居民都以天然食品為主.
ii. 整體水楊酸使用的增加,不代表在Mentia的使用增加.
iii.可能是巧合.
2. Effect 1, Fact 3 ➝ Effect 2 : 錯誤類比.
水楊酸鹽類可用做防腐劑，導致商業使用的增加，不代表其做為風味填加劑，也會促使商業使用增加:
i. 許多天然食品已有水楊酸鹽.
ii. 加工食品也已填加水楊酸鹽做為防腐劑，不需要額外的劑量。
iii.就算需要額外的劑量，成本，其他便宜調味料的競爭也可能造成水楊酸鹽不足以成為第一選擇。